6.2 Baseline
Last updated
Last updated
corresponds to NCS
In the reference scenario, it is determined how the forest would be managed without a climate protection project and how this would affect stockholding. Historical considerations show that utilisation intensity and thus stockholding can change significantly over decades and centuries. Economic considerations also do not provide a reliable forecast of future wood utilisation and stockholding.
The baseline corresponds to usual practice and therefore does not represent a voluntary commitment that would force the forest owner to restricted forest use and increased wood stock keeping.
A moderate utilisation scenario is assumed as the baseline, which lies conservatively within the silvicultural and legal scope and corresponds to the usual practice. It is either defined by an average stockholding at the end of the project term, as represented in scientific yield table models by tree species and site quality, or it is laid out by other recognised sizes of target stocks (e.g. in the continuous forest) or operational considerations, e.g. determinations included in the operational plan. It should be noted that operational considerations may change.
The yield tables like Ref. 09a represent idealised sustainable utilisation concepts for different tree species and growth conditions (productivities), which ideally indicate the increase as a guideline for utilisation, as well as a corresponding equilibrium stock. Yield tables are suitable for determining the reference scenario insofar as they are growth-related and not value-related. They reflect management aimed at optimal yield in terms of mass. The use of yield tables is conservative. On the one hand, the yield level today is higher than depicted therein (Ref. 09). On the other hand, today's utilisation concepts, especially in spruce, are propagated, which assume significantly shorter rotation periods and thus lower average stocks (Ref. 41). In other words, the legal and silvicultural leeway would still allow significantly lower average stocks than indicated in the yield tables.
For example, for Switzerland, the yield tables of the WSL (Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research 1983: Yield tables EAFV 1983, Ref. 7, Ref. 8) or for Germany, the auxiliary tables for forest planning Baden-Württemberg (Ref 9, 9a). The use of yield tables is conservative. These were developed in the 1960-70s. Afterwards, especially in the 1990s, the yield level increased significantly, meaning the yield tables underestimated the actual increment. Studies in Baden-Württemberg show underestimations of up to 40% for spruce, and up to 20% for beech (Ref. 9). This underestimation has been slowed down in the meantime by climate warming but is still clearly present. For the continuous forest, ideal average stockholdings (target stocks) are indicated in the literature for certain forest types.
In contrast to the project scenario, the reference scenario does not additionally increase or secure the timber stock. The reference scenario thus exhibits a poorer CO₂ balance than the project target.
The reference scenario is represented as the balancing line from the initial stock at the beginning of the project term to the normal stock (target stock) at the end of the project term.
The graphics illustrate sample scenarios for the managed forest (IIFM).
Graph on the left: Reference scenario = constant stock (light blue), Project scenario = stock increase (dark blue)
Graph on the right: Reference scenario = stock depletion (light blue), Project scenario = partial avoidance of stock depletion (dark blue)
