6.2 Baseline (PREFERRED)
Last updated
Last updated
corresponds to NCS
In the baseline scenario, it is determined how the forest would be managed without a climate protection project and how this would affect stockholding. Historical considerations show that the intensity of use and thus the stockholding can change significantly over decades and centuries. Economic considerations also do not allow for a reliable forecast of future timber use and stockholding.
The baseline scenario corresponds to usual practice and thus does not constitute a voluntary commitment that would force the forest owner to limited forest use and increased timber stockholding.
A moderate use scenario, which is conservatively within the silvicultural and legal scope and corresponds to usual practice, is assumed as the baseline scenario. It is either defined by an average inventory at the end of the project term, as presented in scientific yield table models according to tree species and site quality, or it is demonstrated by other recognised quantities of target inventories (e.g., in continuous cover forests) or operational considerations, such as determinations contained in the management plan. It should be noted that operational considerations may change.
Yield tables such as Ref. 09a represent idealised sustainable utilisation concepts for various tree species and growth conditions (site quality), which ideally specify the growth as a guideline for utilisation, as well as a corresponding equilibrium stock. Yield tables are suitable for determining the reference scenario in so far as they are growth-related and not value-related. They reflect a management aimed at optimal mass yield. The use of yield tables is conservative. On one hand, the yield level is higher today than depicted therein (Ref. 09). On the other hand, today utilisation concepts are especially advocated in spruce, which assume significantly shorter rotation periods and thus lower average inventories (Ref. 41). In other words, the legal and silvicultural scope would allow significantly lower average inventories than indicated in the yield tables.
Examples for Switzerland include the yield tables of the WSL (Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research 1983: Yield tables EAFV 1983, Ref. 7, Ref. 8) or for Germany the auxiliary tables for forest management in Baden-Württemberg (Ref 9, 9a). The use of yield tables is conservative. These were developed in the 1960s-70s. Afterwards, especially in the 1990s, the yield level increased significantly, meaning the yield tables underestimated the actual growth. Studies in Baden-Württemberg show underestimations for spruce of up to 40%, for beech up to 20% (Ref. 9). This underestimation has meanwhile been slowed down by climate warming, but is still significantly present. For continuous cover forests, ideal average inventories (target inventories) are indicated in the literature for certain forest types.
In contrast to the project scenario, the timber stock is not additionally increased or secured in the baseline scenario. Thus, the baseline scenario has a poorer CO₂ balance than the project goal.
The baseline scenario is depicted as the compensation line from initial stock at the start of the project duration to normal stock (target stock) at the end of the project duration.
The graphic shows example scenarios for a natural forest reserve, with a doubling of the stock according to conservative model assumptions (baseline scenario = constant stock (light blue), project scenario = stock build-up (dark blue)).
